Sometimes, you can look back on a single sports moment that changed the course of history. With the benefit of hindsight, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills hammering out a draft-day trade in 2017 was one of those turning points.
That deal, of course, allowed KC to move up to the 10th spot and select a Texas Tech quarterback by the name of Patrick Mahomes. In exchange for that pick, they sent back their original first-round pick (27th overall), a 2017 third-round pick and a 2018 first-round pick.
It goes without saying that the Chiefs won that exchange. Whether you love him or hate him, no one can dispute Mahomes' impact; since assuming the starting job, it's seemed like he has a guaranteed ticket to the AFC title game. And with three Super Bowl titles and two regular-season MVPs under his belt already, No. 15 has given a previously cursed franchise a reason to believe again.
But now, as of Wednesday, a final detail has fallen into place to confirm the Bills as a big-time loser.
Let's break things down.
The Mahomes Trade Pieces Have Left the Building
In the NFL, the salary cap can sometimes seem like a non-factor. Thanks to the ability to restructure major contracts (like Mahomes'), teams can create more spending room out of what looks like thin air. But that financial ceiling is a real thing, as the Buffalo Bills proved.
On Wednesday, the AFC East club made a series of cap-motivated rooms in order to balance the books ahead of the start of the 2024 league year. Veteran Von Miller reworked his contract, while center Mitch Morse, safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre'Davious White are getting cut. White will technically be designated as a post-June 1 cut, again for financial reasons, but the end result is the same. And while those were the biggest names, some other players were also sent packing.
— Ajay Cybulski (@AjayCybulski) March 6, 2024The #Bills have released:
- CB Tre’Davious White
- C Mitch Morse
- S Jordan Poyer
- S Siran Neal
- WR Deonte Harty
- RB Nyheim HinesThings are changing at One Bills Drive. #BillsMafia
But in the context of the Mahomes trade, it is White's name that looms the largest.
As mentioned above, the Bills got three picks back in their exchange with the Chiefs. The 2017 first turned into White, while that year's extra third-rounder was packaged in a pick-swap that brought Zay Jones to Buffalo. Then, the 2018 first-round pick was swapped with Baltimore, bringing Tremain Edmunds to Western New York.
And now, with White's impending departure, all those players will have left Buffalo. Jones was traded in 2019 (he's now on his third NFL team), and Edmunds joined the Bears in 2023 as a free agent. The only remaining loose end is Tommy Doyle, who was drafted with a pick obtained in the Jones trade, but he's only appeared in 12 career games due to injuries. At this point, it's unlikely he'll turn into a game-changer.
Given that Mahomes is not only still in Kansas City but also leading the Chiefs to dynastic success as one of the league's top players, it's officially safe to declare a winner and a loser of that draft-day exchange.
With that being said, though, the Bills haven't exactly been mired in mediocrity since that fateful trade. They executed their own draft-day deal in 2018, moving up to snag Josh Allen in the first round. And while he hasn't brought Mahomes-level success back to New York State, he has been a franchise cornerstone in his own right.
So, what can we take from that reality?
Beyond the interesting nugget/potential joke ammunition about how the Bills' side of the Mahomes trade is now a closed book, it's a reminder of the reality of draft picks. It can be easy to hold them up as a valuable asset, capable of turning the worst team into a contender, but that's not always the case. While you might think a three-for-one swap is a slam dunk, you end up with egg on your face when that one turns into a generational player.
But, by that same token, they're not complete trash, ready to be traded away at the drop of a hat, either. A single pick salvaged things for Buffalo, after all. Things would look significantly uglier in hindsight if Allen hadn't arrived a year later.
Ultimately, that's where the collective skill of an organization's front office and scouting staff comes in. Drafting is a gamble, but there's something to be said for placing bets with the best knowledge of the odds possible.
As much as we can say "Just draft a franchise quarterback/game-changing talent" from the sidelines, it's not that easy.
Looking at Mahomes' trade and Allen's subsequent selection underscores that reality.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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